DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z THU 13/03 - 06Z FRI 14/03 2003
ISSUED: 12/03 21:31Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

SYNOPSIS

INTENSE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN EUROPE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ... AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION EFFECTS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN. UPSTREAM ... STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER GREAT BRITAIN. WEAKENING TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WILL REACH SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE LATE THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION

...IBERIAN PENINSULA...
AT THE EASTERN SIDE OF ATLANTIC TROUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE. AT PRESENT ... RADIOSONDE DATA SHOW HIGH VALUES OF CIN WITHIN THESE AIRMASS. AS BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY SHOULD NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS QUITE LOW.

...EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN...
DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DESCENDING MOTION SHOULD YIELD TO STABILIZATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

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